By Sascha Glaeser
How will the war in Ukraine end? Senior Biden administration officials privately admit they believe neither Ukraine nor Russia is capable of winning the war outright. At the same time, the Biden administration has ruled out pushing Ukraine to negotiate an end to the conflict, despite growing concerns on both sides of the aisle over the economic and potential security consequences should the United States get dragged into direct hostilities with Russia. Instead, Washington continues to funnel billions of dollars’ worth of weapons, equipment, and aid to Ukraine despite not believing Kyiv can win the war—not exactly a sound geopolitical strategy, let alone good stewardship of American taxpayer money.
At the moment, negotiations seem to be anathema to both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. However, all wars must eventually end. If U.S. president Joe Biden is not interested in using any American leverage to get Ukraine and Russia to come to the negotiating table—such as lifting sanctions on Moscow or communicating to Kyiv that its support is conditional—it seems the bloodshed will continue for the foreseeable future. What, then, are some plausible scenarios for how the war could develop?
This piece was originally published in The National Interest on November 9, 2022. Read more HERE.