By Geoff LaMear
As recent reports of a Russian strike on Poland are reassessed in light of new facts, it is justified to give a sigh of relief. But that shouldn’t give way to complacency. The risk of escalation between NATO and Russia is still high, and it’s important that Washington reevaluate its policies, given the stakes. Because initial intelligence indicates that Ukraine’s surface-to-air missile strayed into Poland, it’s worth revisiting recent developments in the air war. In particular, Washington has increased the risks to Ukraine by incentivizing Iranian-Russian cooperation through drones.
Russia’s employment of Iranian drones in Ukraine is recent but not a paradigm shift. Despite much consternation in Washington and Kyiv, this Iran-Russia cooperation has little military impact. Washington should recognize that overreacting is likely to bring Russia and Iran closer and invite further military collaboration. Their long-term partnership may prove far more deleterious to US interests than these short-term transactions. In other words, these drones are not a game changer.
The use of drones has not changed the air war nor has it resulted in success that Russia could capitalize on. The Russians are falling into the fatal conceit of western defense intellectuals, namely an inordinate focus on effects-based operations, which aim to produce strategic outcomes out of kinetic engagements. Russia employed a standard “5 rings” strategy of targeting command centers and energy infrastructure. Because Russia’s massive use of cruise missiles hasn’t achieved the desired effects, it has repurposed other munitions alongside Iran’s drones as a cost-effective way to attack Ukraine in a contested airspace. Iran’s poor man’s air force cannot do what thousands of cruise missiles couldn’t.
While the volume of drone attacks will likely saturate Ukraine’s air defenses, it is not enough to cripple Ukrainians’ will or means to resist. Therefore, Iran and Russia’s marriage of convenience will last only as long as it is mutually beneficial.
This piece was originally published in InkStick Media on December 12, 2022. Read more HERE.