By Daniel DePetris
Three months after President Trump pulled the plug on peace talks with the Taliban in response to the group’s killing of a U.S. soldier in a suicide bombing, negotiations are back on. Ambassador Zal Khalilzad recently sat down with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, for what the White House hopes will be the beginning of a serious process that leads to a deal.
During a visit with U.S. troops in Afghanistan on Thanksgiving, Trump claimed that the talks were not only back on track, but that the Taliban was even open to a ceasefire. The president’s comments generated a fair degree of confusion, particularly among the Taliban leadership, which reiterated its old position: A ceasefire will only occur when a deal with Washington is signed. And if Kabul is expecting a nationwide truce between Taliban and Afghan government forces, they can keep on dreaming.
Trump’s words aside, the dynamics of the 18-year conflict have not changed all that considerably. In the roughly 10 weeks since talks broke off, the war has continued to be one of the world’s longest meat grinders. U.S. airstrikes increased by over 35% from August to September, the month negotiations fell apart. Taliban-initiated attacks have become more effective. And Afghan civilians are bearing the brunt of the violence. The escalation of U.S. military operations has been met with an escalation of Taliban resistance. The cycle has done nothing to force the Taliban into softening its position that no peace talks with Kabul are possible until U.S. forces withdraw entirely. Given the Taliban’s relatively strong position on the battlefield and the Afghan security forces’ systemic weaknesses, the group has shown as much willingness to compromise today as it did three months ago.
This piece was originally published by Washington Examiner on December 9, 2019. Read more HERE.