By Daniel DePetris
Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic are wondering about the longevity of U.S. support to Ukraine. The Biden administration insists Washington will assist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government for as long as it takes to either drive Russian forces out of Ukraine or maximize Kyiv's leverage when the time comes for a negotiated settlement to the war. But comments from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who will likely become speaker of the House if Republicans win back control of the lower chamber in the midterm elections, have ruffled feathers in the Beltway and led some to wonder whether current levels of U.S. support to the Ukrainians will drop off.
European officials are pondering the same thing. Politicians like British lawmaker Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the defense committee in the House of Commons, went so far as to state that any sign of the U.S. pulling back on its assistance would be a license for Russian President Vladimir Putin to run roughshod over the Ukrainians at a time when Kyiv holds the upper hand on the battlefield. Or, as Ellwood told The Washington Post this week, "If America pulls back, Putin could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat."
Of course, Ellwood has little influence, let alone a say, over U.S. foreign policy decisions. His comments, while impolitic, are actually a reflection of what many in elite European policy circles think: If Washington doesn't hold the line, then the West at-large will eventually grow tired of the war.
But in making the point, its advocates are essentially conceding that the United States serves as the heart, lungs, brain, and spine of the coalition. Europe, to stretch the analogy even further, is playing the role of the appendix, an organ of low consequence. That in itself is a massive problem given the equities at stake and the fact that the war is, in fact, occurring in Europe.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on October 28, 2022. Read more HERE.