By Daniel DePetris
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reverted to measures he hoped to avoid in order to turn around a stumbling war effort in Ukraine. Whether it was declaring a partial mobilization of 300,000 men, obliquely rattling the nuclear sabre or attacking Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure to weaken Ukrainian morale, none of his previous measures have worked. Ukrainian troops are advancing in the very territory Russia claims to have annexed, including in Kherson, where tens of thousands of civilians are being evacuated by Russian troops in anticipation of a Ukrainian offensive.
It would seem that U.S. policy in Ukraine is going extremely well, but the situation is more complicated than it appears. U.S. policymakers are in effect juggling two contradictory objectives: help Ukraine win the war but avoid military escalation with the world’s largest nuclear power. It’s a juggling act because the more successful Ukraine is militarily, the more likely Putin will become more aggressive in his tactics — up to and including the use of nuclear weapons.
This piece was originally published in The Critic on October 27, 2022. Read more HERE.