By Lucy Santora
Brazilians went to the ballot box on October 2 to choose their future leaders. With no presidential candidate accumulating fifty percent of the vote, the race will be decided in an October 30 runoff between current President Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva (Lula). The pair could not be more polarizing, with Bolsonaro representing far-right conservative values and Lula adhering to leftist ideals that, depending on who you ask, dip into socialism. As Brazil is the largest country in South America in landmass, population, and gross domestic product (GDP), whoever is at its helm will exert considerable influence on shaping the continent’s political and economic narratives.
Whoever wins the runoff, the Biden administration will be unlikely to embrace the winner and will need to be creative in its response. There are three critical flashpoints for the U.S.-Brazil relationship: the war in Ukraine, relations with Latin American leftist governments, and climate policy. A survey of these issues helps clarify U.S. national security interests in the region and beyond.
Lula and Bolsonaro have taken a Russia-friendly stance on the invasion of Ukraine, calling for negotiations but condemning the use of sanctions and pledging to continue buying Russian oil. Lula has even gone so far as to say that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin bear equal responsibility for the war. If Lula wins, the Biden administration should be prepared to encourage Brazil to buy oil from Venezuela rather than Russia. While funneling cash into Nicolas Maduro’s regime is not ideal, it is the lesser evil for American interests. Given Lula’s affinity for restoring relations with Venezuela, this approach would have a decent chance of success.
This piece was originally published in The National Interest on October 24, 2022. Read more HERE.