By Daniel Davis
A Winter War in Ukraine Can Only Mean Trouble: As the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) say they hope their offensive reaches the city of Kherson by this winter, Russia continues preparation for a massive counterattack which could begin as early as next month. The results of that battle are likely to be bloody and destructive, but unlikely to settle the war one way or the other.
To understand what is likely to happen in the phase of the war in November and December, it is useful to consider the flow of events between the start of the conflict and today. When Russia launched the war on February 24, it initially shocked the Ukrainian defenders and captured massive swaths of territory, including the regional capital city of Kherson by the seventh day. But once the initial shock wore off, Ukrainian troops stiffened and began launching fierce counterattacks, especially north of Kyiv.
By early April, Russian casualties had risen so high in both personnel and equipment, they were forced to withdraw from Kyiv and Kharkiv, repositioning to the east in the Donbas. Russia then began a new offensive and captured Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk by the first of July. But then, owing to significant losses of troops and tanks, Russia’s offensive began to run out of steam.
Ukraine took advantage of the slowdown in Putin’s drive to form an offensive punch of its own, and in late August began to launch twin offensives in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Initially, the Kherson drive failed, but the Kharkiv attack succeeded beyond Zelensky’s expectations. After recapturing thousands of square kilometers of territory, Ukraine’s offensive is now running out of steam itself, for many of the same reasons Russia’s Spring offensive had (significant loss of troops and armored vehicles).
This piece was originally published in 1945 on October 14, 2022. Read more HERE.