Don’t underestimate the durability of autocracies

By Daniel DePetris

Russia and Iran have wildly different histories, cultures and demographics. But today, a similar aura is beginning to waft over both countries: anxiousness, bordering on restlessness.

In Iran, tens of thousands of people, many of them young, have been taking to the streets in dozens of cities and towns to demonstrate against the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was nabbed by Iran’s notorious morality police last month for what they called improper dress. Badly beaten, Amini ended up in a hospital bed and died after falling into a coma.

Originally, the protests centered on the horrific behavior perpetrated by the despised morality police. But as Iranian security forces have cracked down, leading to dozens of deaths, the grievances have multiplied. Iranians who find themselves in a seemingly endless spiral of deprivation and frustration are using the momentum generated by Amini’s death to register loud complaints about Iran’s ruling system. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man who has headed that system since 1989, is now hearing chants calling for his death.

The average Iranian has a lot to complain about. The combination of U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s lucrative petroleum industry and rampant domestic mismanagement haven’t served Iran’s economy well; its gross domestic product has contracted by 52% over the last decade. Core inflation is through the roof, hitting more than 36%, according to a recent World Bank report. Iranians shell out 75% more for food than they did a year ago, The New York Times reported.

In Russia, the problems are different. While there’s no shortage of economic disadvantages in Russia today, the pressure weighing on the Kremlin has far more to do with the war in Ukraine that is going disastrously wrong.

This piece was originally published in The Chicago Tribune on October 10, 2022. Read more HERE.