By Daniel DePetris
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been referred to over the years as a man who understands Russia’s leverage and knows how to use it.
But ever since the Russian leader chose to embark upon a war of choice in Ukraine, these perceptions have been torn to shreds. Putin, the so-called chess-master, is in reality a wild gambler who often overestimates Russia’s power and is therefore prone to miscalculating. The world has witnessed this throughout the seven-month war in Ukraine (this month Russia has lost 3,000 square kilometers of territory that it had seized), and it’s seeing it play out in real time as Moscow curtails natural gas to Europe. What looks like a fairly effective way to penalize the West for supporting Ukraine is in reality a risky gambit that will undermine Russia’s long-term economic and geopolitical position (on September 27, the Nord Stream pipeline was reportedly sabotaged).
Over the short-term, Gazprom’s stoppage of the Nord Stream pipeline has Europe scrambling for alternative suppliers. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, Russian exports of pipeline natural gas to the European Union and the United Kingdom have plummeted by almost 40 percent since January. Prices gone done by nearly half since the August 26 high but are still up by 372 percent from the same time last year. U.S. officials are concerned about the political impact associated with energy shortages over the coming winter.
This piece was originally published in Time on September 28, 2022. Read more HERE.