By Geoff LaMear
Amid back-and-forth attacks between Iranian-backed militias and U.S. troops in Syria, a cycle of escalation is unfolding that could undermine U.S. diplomacy and even spark a war.
Reporting indicates the U.S. and Iran-backed militias have engaged in four rounds of attacks and reprisals since Aug. 15. Escalation is hard to control by both sides, and it’s important to remember flashpoints like these could become a larger conflict. The easiest way to prevent that is to reorient U.S. strategy in Iraq and Syria from a military one to a diplomatic one.
With an Iran nuclear deal imminent, it’s more urgent than ever for Washington to reevaluate its priorities. Iran is not an existential threat. Its regional proxy network is the strategy of an underdog. Without billions to invest in a military that could rival that of the United States, Iran cultivates the sympathies of its Shiite coreligionists in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and equips them to deter potential U.S. aggression.
The U.S. presence in Iraq and Syria likewise is meant to deter Iran. But this framing of deterrence doesn’t work; while the U.S. sees itself as preserving the status quo, these militias in Iraq and Syria assess that they have the bigger stake and are willing to incur more risk.
The ensuing standoff between proxies determined to expel U.S. troops and U.S. troops compelled by Washington to stay has now resulted in injured U.S. service members. This will continue if there’s no change in course. But there’s no need to risk a catastrophic war to fight Iran’s junior varsity team.
This piece was originally published in The Chicago Tribune on August 29, 2022. Read more HERE.