By Quinn Marschik
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan is increasing U.S.-China tensions and could lead to the next Taiwan Strait crisis. Should a crisis occur, responsibly managing the Sino-American relationship will be essential to prevent an escalatory spiral and conflict. So far, Washington has failed to establish guardrails to do this. Since fall 2021, U.S. officials at the highest levels have unsuccessfully discussed guardrails with their Chinese counterparts. During their most recent call, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping continued to sidestep establishing effective guardrails. At the next meeting, Biden should negotiate with Xi to agree to interest-based guardrails to mitigate the risk of war.
First, Biden should declare that the United States does not and will not seek regime change in China. This is both easy and a net gain for U.S. foreign policy. Beijing’s primary aim is to keep the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party in power. In response to Biden’s “battle between democracy and autocracy” rhetoric, China changed the ordering of its vital interests by placing its regime type at the top of the list. The United States can recognize the status quo, commit to not change it, and lose nothing. In fact, America would benefit from dropping ideological and regime change rhetoric. Governments from Latin America to the Indo-Pacific may be more open to U.S. diplomacy — allowing Washington to more effectively secure and advance American interests. Moreover, a non-regime change foreign policy is in line with the Founding Fathers’ foreign policy principles.
In return, Xi should promise that China will never work to interfere in U.S. elections or change America’s constitutional form of government. America is not America without its founding documents and form of government. Since Beijing isn’t actually making a concession — but pledging to uphold present reality — China should find this agreeable.
Second, Biden should discard his past remarks and clarify the “One China policy.” Biden can reassure China and repeat his secretary of state’s words that longstanding U.S. policy does not support Taiwan’s independence and will consider a declaration of independence as a “unilateral change to the status quo.” Of all China’s territorial integrity issues, Taiwan is considered “at the core.” To Beijing, reunification is about finally ending a civil war and resolving a historical question that goes to the heart of the CCP’s legitimacy. This would be true for any regime in Beijing, no matter the style of government. China and the Chinese people simply care more about Taiwan than America ever could. Washington can reconfirm existing policy without giving up anything to reduce conflict with China.
This piece was originally published in Stars and Stripes on August 1, 2022. Read more HERE.