By Lyle Goldstein
Western press coverage of the war in Ukraine seems to have gone through a full cycle: from horror at the invasion to ebullience over Ukraine’s courageous victory around Kyiv to horror again as the bodies pile up in the Donbas region. A new, surprisingly candid analysis from the Russian side is revealing, regarding the state of the war and the ominous dangers that continue to lurk in the background.
To be sure, Russian military commentators have been gloating lately about troop successes in Mariupol and the relatively rapid fall of Severdonestk, so this article by Yevgeny Fedorov in Military Review (Военное Обозрение) could have been intended to bring the high-flying Russian commentariat back down to the gruesome reality of the Ukraine war. The analysis is structured around a few provocative questions prompted by a previous Russian article: Why hasn’t Russia exploited its airpower advantage? Why hasn’t Russia succeeded in deploying large, mobile forces? And why hasn’t Russia cut off the significant flow of Western arms to Ukrainian forces on the front lines?
The first question concerns Russian air superiority, or lack thereof. The original question, as related by Fedorov, wondered how it is that the Russian Air Force does “not hang over the heads of the enemy for days.” The answer states succinctly that NATO radar aircraft (AWACS) are “hovering like vultures near to Ukraine around the clock,” providing real-time intelligence on all Russian aircraft sorties, including from the time they leave their Russian bases. With this kind of tracking, Ukrainian air defense systems can operate with their own radars turned off — making them much harder to detect. By turning on their fire control radars only at the last moment before engagement, the Russian target aircraft have “minimal time to make evasive maneuvers.”
Thus, extensive NATO radar capabilities make the work of the Russian Air Force significantly more costly.
This piece was originally published in The Hill on July 15, 2022. Read more HERE.