By Geoff Lamear
U.S. forces are redeploying to Somalia, reversing a withdrawal initiated in the last days of President Donald Trump's administration. In doing so, the U.S. is turning back the clock and readopting its old counterterrorism strategies. But reinvigorating a war with no tangible benefit to the American public should prompt skepticism.
First, there's no clear link between this mission and the security of the American people. Somalia's sole geostrategic value is its proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint near the Red Sea important to international trade. But the threat to shipping in this sea lane is overstated and at historic lows. Moreover, the presence of U.S. ground forces doesn't counter this threat. Ground forces can conduct raids on terror cells and advise and assist local authorities, but this doesn't translate into diminished capabilities among terrorist groups. The base of support for these groups remains unchanged, so military success won't always produce strategic success.
To be sure, Al-Shabaab, the main terrorist group in Somalia, should be combatted diplomatically. But the group's aims are local, not transnational. Because Americans aren't in the crosshairs, the risk to servicemembers isn't commensurate with this threat, nor are the high costs of employing U.S. ground forces and accompanying air support.
Foreign policy analysts often employ the "safe havens" argument, namely that security vacuums will enable terrorists to strike worldwide. But this ignores both the capabilities and motives of groups like Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab's membership draws nearly exclusively from the Horn of Africa, and its ability to threaten attacks is limited to this region.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on June 02, 2022. Read more HERE.