By Quinn Marschik
As many outlets noted prior to the speech, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s outline of the U.S. strategy toward China contains few surprises. In short, the Biden administration’s China policy fails to offer solutions to effectively manage U.S.-China relations. Instead of a central focus on American interests, the China strategy appears more concerned with ideological competition.
Defining U.S.-China relations as a battle for the global order will raise the risk of conflict and reduce the chance for successful diplomacy.
The United States has a vital interest in avoiding war with China, which could easily go nuclear, especially over potentially perceived — but not real — threats. No one knows for sure if Beijing seeks to become a global hegemon. Based on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” vision, regaining a leading role in the Asia-Pacific is the goal. Claiming with certainty that China ultimately seeks to overthrow U.S. global leadership and upturn the global order in its entirety is largely speculation and projection. More research is needed. That will require frank and honest diplomacy with senior Chinese party and state officials, more purposeful track two and track 1.5 dialogues, and a deeper understanding of Chinese world views. Assuming China wants to rule the world will engender constant suspicion and make diplomacy less effective.
The implicit framing of U.S.-China relations as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism also increases the chance of conflict and will reduce diplomacy’s effectiveness. China’s number one vital — or as Beijing calls it “core” — interest is keeping the Chinese Communist Party in power. It will fight to keep its hold on the state.
This piece was originally published in The Washington Times on May 31, 2022. Read more HERE.