By Benjamin Giltner
Already a tragedy, signs indicate the Ukraine-Russia war is about to become uglier. Russia continues to engage in siege warfare, leaving Ukrainians with cities of rubble and carnage.
While the war in Ukraine deserves the world’s undivided attention, it is imperative to look beyond Ukraine and analyze scenarios that could lead to another armed conflict with Russia. The former Soviet republic of Georgia has already faced the wrath of the Russian military. After the breakaway province of South Ossetia battled Georgian forces in 2008, Russia stormed the stage, crushed the Georgian military, and recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent territories. With South Ossetia’s recent proposal to become a part of Russia and Georgia’s submission of an application to become a member of the European Union, armed tensions between these two countries may not yet be over.
There are two main risks to conflict erupting between Russia and Georgia. First, Russia is quickly becoming more isolated than ever. Sanctions have crippled Russia economically, dropping the Russian economy to what Institute of International Finance economist Elina Ribakova describes as the lowest point since the 1990s. Russia has not much else, short of war, for it to lose. Moreover, Biden administration officials haven’t been exactly subtle when they speak their mind on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
This piece was originally published in Chicago Tribune on April 19, 2022. Read more HERE.