By Daniel DePetris
Nearly two weeks into the war in Ukraine, the Russian military remains on the outskirts of the country’s major cities. Despite an impressive Ukrainian resistance, there is an acknowledgment in Washington that Ukraine is unlikely to hold out over the long term. The Biden administration is discussing options for a Ukrainian government-in-exile in the event President Volodymyr Zelensky is killed, captured, or forced to flee Kyiv. Washington is also debating whether to arm a budding Ukrainian insurgency against Russian occupation.
The Biden administration, however, needs to think long and hard before plunging into what would be a long, bloody proxy war against Moscow. An unemotional, clear-headed analysis of the costs and benefits is in order.
The benefits of supporting a Ukrainian insurgency are easy to acknowledge. For one, there is something righteous about helping the Ukrainians defend themselves against an aggressor. The U.S. and its NATO allies are already supporting Kyiv with significant shipments of weapons and ammunition. Around 17,000 anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Ukrainian forces in less than a week. Keeping those supplies going after a hypothetical Russian military victory would merely be a continuation of the current policy.
This piece was originally published in Task & Purpose on March 9, 2022. Read more HERE.