By Daniel DePetris
Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that squeezing multiple Ukrainian cities from the outside and pummeling them with artillery and missiles will eventually compel Kyiv to cave in to Russia's demands. The United States and its allies are betting that persistent pressure on the Russian economy, combined with an influx of military equipment to the Ukrainian army, will compel Putin to stop a military operation that is getting uglier by the day. Both sides are preparing for a further escalation of the war. What is needed instead is a diplomatic off-ramp before the war bleeds outside of Ukraine.
The first two weeks of the Russian invasion have been deadly for all parties involved. Putin is likely surprised and angry about the Ukrainian army's heroic resistance and his own military's bumbling performance. While exact numbers are hard to verify, hundreds, if not thousands, of Russian troops have died on the battlefield. Russia's dependence on large convoys and armor have provided Ukrainian soldiers with targets of opportunity, even more so when the tanks and personnel carriers are stuck in the mud or out of gas. Russian commanders appear flummoxed on how to combat more nimble Ukrainian units, exposing the Russian military writ-large as a far more incompetent institution than U.S. intelligence officials previously thought. The Russians, stalled outside Ukraine's major cities, are changing tactics, relying on brute, indiscriminate fire against residential areas to wear down the Ukrainian army's resistance.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on March 9, 2022. Read more HERE.