By Mike Sweeney
When we talk about nuclear weapons, we often do so in a dichotomous way. There are states with nuclear weapons, and there are states without nuclear weapons. Simple possession of a bomb is seen as a conveying an inherent set of advantages. Lost in this framework of discussion, though, is a range of qualitative issues—questions of degree that require a deeper and more nuanced examination to answer.
Are all nuclear states created equal? This is an essential avenue of analysis not only in assessing states with existing arsenals but in examining the intentions of prospective nuclear powers. For example: How useful would a nuclear capability actually be to Iran?
The subject is no longer just an academic question, with the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action uncertain amid an eighth round of talks in Vienna. Were Iran to deploy nuclear weapons, it would seemingly reshape the security landscape in the Middle East. However, at least initially, the utility of an Iranian nuclear capability could be constrained by practical factors, such as weapon yield, reliability, and deliverability.
This piece was originally published in Modern War Institute on January 12, 2022. Read more HERE.