By Geoff LaMear
As U.S. troop withdrawals from Saudi Arabia echo the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, some foreign policy professionals have sounded the alarm. One recent report published by the Atlantic Council, a prominent think tank in Washington, D.C., lays out the risks: U.S. allies will feel abandoned, the U.S. will be unable to guard its strategic interests, and China will fill the void. But are these concerns warranted?
The report criticizes the potential inability for the U.S. to pursue “value-based interests” such as human rights promotion. But this errs by overstating the leverage which the American military presence provides. Human rights promotion is not a function of U.S. military power, but instead a function of American soft power, both from the State Department and from non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Furthermore, military intervention undermines Washington’s ability to promote American values in the region. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations are well-documented, but U.S. intervention in the Iran-Saudi rivalry requires that this be overlooked.
A recurring claim throughout the report is the importance of a U.S. military presence to protect trade, primarily oil. But has an aggressive U.S. policy delivered on this? Consider the most recent disruptions to oil in the region. U.S. sanctions against Iran precipitated attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and the U.S. military presence failed to deter this. That wasn’t a function of how robust the U.S. military presence was. It was the departure from diplomacy that endangered oil flows. As the Biden administration is currently proving, a return to diplomacy can be coupled with military drawdowns.
This piece was originally published in The Hill on June 30, 2021. Read more HERE.