By Geoff LaMear
According to recent reports, Iran has begun producing uranium metal, a key component of nuclear weapons. Iran’s intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, has similarly hinted that Iran may be “pushed” by the United States into pursuing a nuclear weapons program. While this may incite panic among those who anticipate Iran racing to obtain a nuclear weapon, the United States has tools to prevent this outcome without risking conflict.
It helps to understand that Iran’s motive for these nuclear developments is to gain leverage in negotiations. The Biden administration is pushing for Iran to make the first move before the United States provides sanctions relief. Iran won’t accept delaying sanctions relief while it suffers economic turmoil, and likewise won’t make the first move. Therefore, Iran is forcing urgency by taking steps that shorten its “breakout time,” the time it would take for Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.
This doesn’t mean Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, only that the period before it could attain one is shorter than before. US leverage in negotiations won’t increase by stonewalling a return to the nuclear deal. Furthermore, Biden’s return to “moral leadership” in foreign policy is undermined when sanctions sow ruin even among those not affiliated with Iran’s government. For US credibility as much as for regional security, the Biden administration should take immediate sanctions relief actions to demonstrate renewed commitment to a diplomatic approach.
This piece was originally published in Inkstick Media on February 16, 2021. Read more HERE.