Days after President Donald Trump dropped his tariff threat against eight European countries over their opposition to the United States acquiring Greenland, the self-proclaimed “tariff man” instituted another warning against yet another ally: Canada. “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.
For Canada, U.S. tariffs in the Trump era are nothing new. On March 12, Trump slapped 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, and Canada was no exception. Ottawa retaliated shortly thereafter with a similar tariff rate. A month later, the two countries taxed each other’s auto parts as well. Most observers speculated that this tit for tat was an attempt by both countries to enhance their leverage heading into this year’s renegotiation of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade accord, a reasonable assumption given Trump’s obsession with reopening deals he previously signed.
The latest tariff threat, however, comes at a time when one of the world’s typically most fruitful and amicable bilateral relationships is getting iced over due to conflicting personalities at the top and a philosophical difference of how international politics should work. Ties between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, which used to be dominated by mutual praise—Trump called Carney “a world-class leader” during their bilateral meeting at the White House in October—is now hitting speed bumps. Last week, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump explicitly called out Carney during his speech and warned him that if it wasn’t for the United States, Canada would be struggling to survive as a state. Hours later, Trump withdrew his invitation to Carney to join his Board of Peace, a slight that was about as petty as disinviting a friend from your birthday celebration for forgetting to tag you on Instagram.
Even so, personality disputes can be papered over if countries share mutual goals and interests. For the most part, the United States and Canada have been fortunate enough to live in a world where they do. Neither wants chaos and confrontation in the Western Hemisphere; both aim to preserve North America as one of the world’s most lucrative markets; and the U.S. and Canadian militaries operate together on a daily basis through NORAD, the continent-wide defense network that often scrambles aircraft to ward off Russian fighter jets near Alaska. Not to be outdone, Washington and Ottawa share supply chains for everything from agriculture to cars. And at more than $600 billion last year, the U.S.-Canada trade relationship is a moneymaker.
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