Déjà vu in Lebanon

There isn’t much in the Middle East to celebrate these days. The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which provided some respite from weeks of bombing and missile attacks, is set to expire this Wednesday if the parties don’t find a way to extend it. The Gulf Arab states, which have gotten used to being an oasis of tranquility in an unstable region, are now on the front lines of a conflict that has exposed its many vulnerabilities. Gaza remains in a state of purgatory, with millions of Palestinians still dealing with a humanitarian crisis and the future of the territory very much in doubt.

So when President Donald Trump’s administration announced a 10-day ceasefire last Thursday to stop the fighting in Lebanon, it was understandable why many had smiles on their faces. The cessation of hostilities, the product of the most senior-level meeting between Israeli and Lebanese officials in over 40 years, is designed to provide both countries with an opportunity to establish a durable diplomatic process that, one hopes, results in a formal peace agreement and an official demarcation of their disputed border. According to the terms, the ceasefire can be extended if Israel and Lebanon agree and enough progress is made by the Lebanese government in asserting its sovereignty against Hezbollah, the nonstate militia that resumed its war against Israel days after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Unlike the war in Iran, in which Trump has equivocated between negotiating a settlement and threatening to annihilate Iranian civilization, it appears that the White House wants to see the ceasefire in Lebanon survive. Israeli and Lebanese officials are scheduled for another meeting in Washington later this week. Trump went so far as to write on his Truth Social page that, from now on, he’s prohibiting Israel from striking Lebanese territory, a warning that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was so irked by that he asked his ambassador in Washington to register complaints to the White House about the tone of Trump’s message. Lebanese civilians are hopeful that the Israel-Hezbollah war is closer to being over for good. Some of the hundreds of thousands of people who were displaced from Lebanon’s south are now returning to their homes despite Israeli warnings against doing so.

Despite the hope, however, it’s wise to remember that positive vibes in the Middle East are often snuffed out by spoilers and competing agendas. Lebanon is no different. U.S. officials should hope for the best but prepare for the worst.