President Donald Trump has again delayed his threats to send Iran “back to the stone ages,” accepting a Pakistan-proposed ceasefire extension on April 21. The apparent extension, while flawed given the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and new Iranian strikes on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in response, reflects the precarity of the current situation. However, when coupled with the so-called “ceasefire” in Lebanon that was effectively forced on Israel, a critical dynamic presents itself: a divergence of American and Israeli interests in this regional war.
The decision to again step back from the abyss is wise. Any return to attacks that have caused widespread civilian harm would have produced additional violations of international humanitarian law and war crimes. It would have further hardened Tehran’s desire to make this war as painful as possible for the parties involved and the region more broadly, worsening the international economic downturn and the widespread death of civilians defining the conflict.
The wild card, however, remains Israel. Both the United States and Israel depict the war as existential and easily winnable, but pre-existing strategic divergence could now be widening for the better. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the Islamic Republic’s disintegration, whereas Trump, possibly satisfied with tactical success in Iran, may desire any graceful exit. He should take it.
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