Along Ukraine’s eastern frontline, the question is not if Russia will gain full control of Pokrovsk, a key location on Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” but when.
The city’s collapse will be a strategic loss for Ukraine and a tactical win for Russia, but it won’t bring an end to the war closer. This is because none of the key stakeholders is ready to stop fighting. Worse, the coming months could be the war’s most dangerous, with desperation creeping into Kyiv’s upper ranks and nuclear saber-rattling from the United States and Russia on the rise.
For the Trump administration, this is bad news. The slim window of opportunity it had for simply walking away from Ukraine, no strings attached, has closed and now bilateral diplomacy with Russia is stalled. Though President Donald Trump insists that this is still “Biden’s war,” almost a year into his term, he will certainly own the consequences of the conflict’s eventual end—good or bad.
Washington will need a new strategy, however, if it hopes to salvage its efforts to achieve peace. The starting point for this new strategy must be an acceptance that there is no amount of pressure that will drive Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war before he has minimally achieved his objectives. Instead, President Trump’s best shot at reaching a deal would leverage his strongest card: the fact that Putin needs U.S. involvement to achieve his political objectives and cares so much more about the details of a settlement than the U.S. president.
Read at Responsible Statecraft
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