2024 was a rough year for Ukraine.
Outside of a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region that began over the summer, surprised the Kremlin, and forced the Russian army’s high-command to scramble a defense inside its own territory, Moscow now holds the advantage in the nearly three-year long war. Russian troops continue to maul Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk, with the critical transportation hub of Pokrovsk increasingly under threat of encirclement. The Kursk operation, which the Ukrainian government hoped would re-allocate Russian forces away from the east, has instead devolved into another attritional grind, with Ukrainians at the front increasingly questioning whether the offensive was a smart play.
Support for a full Ukrainian military victory, meanwhile, is getting more precarious in Europe with every passing day. According to a poll released in late December, backing for a negotiated end to the war has risen in Sweden, Denmark, the U.K., Germany, Spain, France, and Italy over the last 12 months. All of this, combined with Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20, is having an impact on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s calculations. The same man who once insisted that nothing short of total victory over Russia was acceptable is now talking about forging a settlement that would allow Moscow to retain the roughly 20 percent of Ukraine it now occupies, albeit temporarily.
Just because Ukraine is struggling doesn’t mean Russia is close to victory. Despite what Russian President Vladimir Putin may tell the Russian public during his monotonous press conferences and New Years Day speeches, everything isn’t going well in the motherland.
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