Spheres of influence are a reality of world politics, and it will be good if present and future U.S. administrations embrace the concept, instead of ‘fighting against gravity,’ so to speak. Properly implemented, spheres-of-influence cognizant policies adopted by Washington could help mitigate conflict by erecting buffer zones, defining red lines, dousing brushfires within spheres, averting adventurism, and promoting needed bargaining between the great powers, as scholars Lindsey O’Rourke and Joshua Shifrinson cogently explain.
It must be stated at the outset that the Beijing establishment is rather hostile to the use of this terminology, so other phrases like “new type great power relations” should be employed instead. A logical outcome of such an approach to Asia-Pacific security will leave Taiwan decidedly in the Chinese sphere—a fact of geography, history, and culture that is also consistent with the evolving balance of power. The U.S. simply has no vital interests at stake in Taiwan’s future, so it is ridiculous to make it the cornerstone of U.S. national security policy. On the other hand, Japan and South Korea, not to mention Australia and the Philippines would remain firmly in the American sphere—again a byproduct of geography, history and culture. As to the sensitive matter of offshore rocks and reefs, here the U.S. would wisely yield to Beijing, so it could focus on defending the home islands of America’s long-time treaty allies. Such simple adjustments would go a long way toward pacifying the Pacific for the coming century.
Read at Responsible Statecraft
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