The political pressure on any president to intervene in a conflict between Beijing and Taipei would be strong, as Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities and Stephen Wertheim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace observed in Foreign Affairs. “By staying out, the president could expect to be blamed not only for permitting the economic meltdown that China’s invasion would trigger but also for losing Taiwan after a decades-long battle of wills between Washington and Beijing over the island’s future,” they wrote.
Nevertheless, Americans need not choose between abandoning and defending Taiwan. Washington should pursue a dialogue with Beijing directed at defusing the military situation in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. should press mutual restraint, with reductions to America’s regional military activity, Washington’s political and military contacts with Taipei, Beijing’s coercive military operations and threats, and Taipei’s independence-oriented diplomatic activity. The goal of such a diplomatic initiative, Kavanagh and Wertheim explained, is that China “would see the threat subside as Washington takes greater care not to publicly challenge the legitimacy of Beijing’s territorial claim and aspiration for eventual unification.”
Kavanagh and Wertheim also suggest a broader strategy to empower Taiwan by promoting the island’s ability to defend itself, which “allows the U.S. to assist from a distance, and keeps the U.S. position in Asia intact regardless of how a cross-strait conflict concludes.” In particular, Washington should sell those weapons, such as anti-ship mines and missiles, most useful to prevent a Chinese attack. More important to America, as well as much more defensible against Beijing, are Japan and other Asian states. The U.S. should encourage them to bolster their militaries, including by increasing intra-Asian cooperation, especially with India. Moreover, threatened states should consider acquiring nuclear weapons, controversial though that would be. So-called extended deterrence, with the U.S. threatening to fight nuclear war against the enemies of its allies, is a terrible game of chicken made much riskier by China’s ongoing nuclear build-up. Far better that allied states control their own defense destinies.
While Taiwan may be the most dangerous spot on earth, Kavanagh and Wertheim urge U.S. officials to downplay the island state’s significance, rejecting “the misguided idea that the United States’ survival and prosperity turn on Taiwan’s political status.” America need not commit potential national suicide on Taipei’s behalf.
Read at The American Conservative
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