“Turkey’s geographic location makes it important to the alliance, giving Erdogan freedom of action he might not otherwise have,” the senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, Jennifer Kavanagh, tells the Sun.
Ms. Kavanagh, meanwhile, describes the calculation on the European side in similarly stark terms.
The goal of European leaders going into the NATO summit was “to have an uneventful summit that does not provoke further U.S. criticism of the alliance,” she says. “With the U.S. commitment to NATO in question, European allies need Turkey. Turkey has one of the biggest and best-equipped militaries after the United States and is a major defense producer. Europe’s NATO members cannot afford to alienate Erdogan at this moment.”
“I don’t see any prospect for pressure on Ankara at this point,” Ms. Kavanagh says. “Europe needs Turkey much more than Turkey needs Europe right now.”
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