China is “close to this war in a way that wasn’t true of the Iraq or even Afghanistan wars,” said Lyle J. Goldstein, an expert at Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington, who has been studying Chinese assessments of the war in Ukraine. “They see themselves potentially in Russia’s shoes in more or less going to war against America.”
As Ukraine’s successes mounted, Chinese military analysts have focused on the equipment and intelligence that NATO countries have provided Ukraine to help fight Russian forces. China was most likely monitoring the thousands of Stinger, Javelin and other missiles that Ukraine has acquired, and weighing what would happen as Taiwan built up its stocks, said Mr. Goldstein, who also teaches at Brown University.
“I believe that the Chinese are watching all this very carefully and adding the numbers up and making a calculation,” he said.
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