By Andrew Latham and Rajan Menon
Andrew Latham: “Prior to 2014, Sino-Russian relations weren’t particularly warm. But the confluence of what Beijing perceived to be U.S. efforts to “bully” Russia over Ukraine, China over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and both countries over a range of other issues, made 2014 a year of what China experts refer to as “an abnormal acceleration of Sino-Russian relations.” Since then, Beijing has been committed to greater alignment and cooperation with Russia to divide American attention and resources, complicate U.S. military planning in both theaters and otherwise insulate itself from U.S. efforts to “rebalance to Asia” and to dominate the western Pacific. The ongoing war in Ukraine, while doubtless complicating things for Beijing, is unlikely to fundamentally change this assessment, and I have little doubt that China will strive to keep Russia close for the foreseeable future.”
Rajan Menon: “Durable” is the hard part here. Russian-Chinese relations have undergone so many dramatic changes over the last 150-plus years that extrapolation from the present requires a level of confidence and penchant for prophesy that I lack.