Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Washington-based Defense Priorities, said Chinese interlocutors she had spoken to suggested one of Beijing’s objectives was to have the package cancelled altogether rather than merely postponed or suspended.
But she rejected suggestions that Trump was preparing to trade Taiwan for concessions from Beijing, saying neither side was likely to view the issue in those terms.
Instead, Trump’s focus on economic ties with Beijing and reluctance to disrupt that relationship meant the package could stay stalled for some time, Kavanagh told a panel organised last week by ReThink Media, a U.S. non-profit strategic communications group.
“I think this topic will definitely come up on the arms sale,” she said. “I think it’s most likely just going to get kicked down the road.”
If Trump and Xi meet two more times this year as expected, the package might remain stalled until 2027, Kavanagh added.
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