Over the past decade, concerns about a Chinese campaign to take Taiwan by force have risen rapidly among U.S. policymakers and military planners alike, especially as China’s military power and assertive activities around the island have increased.[1] For Taiwan’s strongest supporters in the U.S., any change in the cross-strait status quo poses an unacceptable threat to American interests. They see Taiwan as a “critical node” that must be protected at all costs, whether that means higher defense spending or a deeper U.S. military commitment.[2]
This is a mistake. The greatest threat to U.S. interests is not a successful Chinese campaign to seize Taiwan, but rather a U.S.-China war fought over the island. With the right investments, the United States can manage the consequences of unification between China and Taiwan without compromising its core interests. Washington cannot, however, manage the likely fallout of a war with China, a conflict that would be fought against a peer military 90 miles from that country’s own coastline.
The United States, therefore, needs a policy toward Taiwan that definitively closes the door on the risk of such a war, and rules out the direct intervention of U.S. military forces to defend the island in case of a confrontation with China.
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