As the war with Iran enters its sixth month, it’s impossible to ignore all the ironies associated with the Trump administration’s ill-advised decision to initiate hostilities against a country that wasn’t poised to attack the United States or undermine U.S. national security.
Much of the current focus is on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas ordinarily flows. Closure of the strait has driven up the price of fuel and basic goods, both in the U.S. and around the world. The irony is that the Strait of Hormuz was open before the U.S. decided to attack Iran and there were no indications that Iran had intentions to close the strait. Closing the strait was always a lever that Iran could pull, but Tehran had no incentive to do so since it would have adverse effects on its own economy.
Since launching the war, President Trump has threatened to “completely decimate and destroy” or “annihilate” Iran on several occasions, giving the regime in Tehran a strong incentive to endure any pain caused by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, closing the Strait of Hormuz was completely predictable since almost all analysts and military planners previously raised the chokepoint’s vulnerability in assessing the costs and benefits of a war with Iran.
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