By Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter
Few issues are more salient to evaluate than how Beijing views the nuclear shadows surrounding the present bloody conflagration in Eastern Europe. There is some reasonable hope that Chinese pressure could cause the Kremlin to completely rule out nuclear escalation, and this indeed may have been a major theme of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow back in March 2023.
Just as important is another looming question: What lessons does Russia’s nuclear signaling hold for a prospective Chinese war to force unification with Taiwan? Although China’s nuclear arsenal is nowhere near as large and advanced as Russia’s, a Taiwan scenario could involve war between two nuclear powers, so issues related to nuclear escalation are germane. Moreover, China is rapidly building up its nuclear capabilities at present. Therefore, these questions could become more and more acute in the context of China-U.S. strategic interaction.
This piece was originally published in The Diplomat on July 21, 2023. Read more HERE.