By Rajan Menon and Dan DePetris
On November 15, two Russian-made cruise missiles crossed into Poland, landing in the village of Przewodow, a village in the southeastern corner of the country, near the border with Ukraine, killing at least two people.
Preliminary investigations, as reported by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, indicate that the incident was caused by Ukraine’s missile defense systems, which sought to intercept an incoming Russian missile. But the event immediately created a storm of speculation, coming as it did on a day when the Russian military fired some 90 cruise missiles at energy installations and other sites throughout Ukraine, continuing a weeks-long attempt to devastate the Ukrainian economy as winter approaches.
The episode, though accidental, marks the first time the fighting in Ukraine has crossed into NATO territory. That, in turn, produced a tsunami of instant analysis about whether Poland would invoke Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty that created NATO. Article 5 is important because it states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all.
Everyone should have taken a deep breath. In times like these, when emotions run high and scary scenarios abound, prudence is particularly important. Invoking Article 5 is an alliance decision—and even if it were invoked, each country has the right to determine how it will respond.
This piece was originally published in Responsible Statecraft on November 17, 2022. Read more HERE.