By Lyle Goldstein
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has proven to be brutal and catastrophic. Justice for the victims must be sought, but there is an even greater imperative to stop the bloodletting immediately, both for the sake of Ukraine and for returning the global system back to an imperfect but more stable equilibrium. Further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and accelerated military preparations, including redeploying the US nuclear arsenal, are not the answer to our present predicament.
Steps toward peace would simultaneously put the world economy back on track, reignite the global consensus to halt climate change, and, most importantly, put the dangerous nuclear genie back into the bottle, where it had been blessedly dormant (or nearly so) for some decades. For the last nine months, Americans have been enthralled with the “good war” in Ukraine, hoping to cleanse any sins accumulated over the course of the United States’ previous “endless wars.”
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Milley’s calls for peace talks angered the Ukrainians, but this likely reflects his deep knowledge of both the military situation and the immense costs that this war is imposing on all concerned, including — and especially — Ukraine. Even though Russia’s retreat from Kherson this month is encouraging and a testament to the fighting spirit of Ukraine’s army, the war is still raging on with no real end in sight. The United States, therefore, needs to make straightforward, common-sense diplomatic changes to repair the world order so that it can function minimally to support peace and development. It is essential to substantially lower the temperature of great power tensions, starting with Russia, but in relations with China as well.
In other words, Washington must be more cognizant of tendencies toward threat inflation. As I explain in research for Brown University’s Cost of War project, this involves the United States being careful about assessing Russian military weaknesses against Europe’s simultaneous military strengths, as well as the nuclear paradox that results from this sharp asymmetry.
This piece was originally published in InkStick Media on November 16, 2022. Read more HERE.