By Lyle Goldstein
Gunfire broke out in the Taiwan Strait two weeks ago as Taiwanese defense forces shot down a Chinese drone near the tiny island of Kinmen.
The islet just off the port city of Xiamen has a fascinating and bloody modern history, playing an outsize role in the cross-strait relationship for decades. Less than a month after Mao Zedong declared the creation of the People's Republic of China in 1949, his forces unsuccessfully attempted an amphibious invasion of Kinmen.
During two major cross-strait crises in the 1950s, Mao ordered intensive shelling of Kinmen, prompting the U.S. to publicly consider the possible employment of nuclear weapons against China. The shelling, however, continued until 1979, when the U.S. established formal relations with Beijing.
The recent shootdown of the drone near Kinmen is not likely to lead to escalation, due in large part to the island's demilitarized status and because the aerial intruder was unsophisticated. Nevertheless, it is worth underlining that Chinese drones would have a large role in any military campaign to conquer Taiwan.
This piece was originally published in Nikkei Asia on September 18, 2022. Read more HERE.