By Lyle Goldstein
China put on an ominous firepower display for the world and Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Many have cheered Pelosi’s bravery in visiting the isolated island, just 90 miles off the coast of a rising superpower. But though Pelosi has returned home safely and enjoyed the adulation in the media, the people of Taiwan and in the wider Asia-Pacific region will unfortunately continue to live with a dire security situation made much worse over the last weeks.
There appear to be some changes in China’s military posture toward Taiwan that will leave the beleaguered island more vulnerable. Three aspects of the drills by the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, are most troubling. First, the exercises involved quite extensive and brazen movements along Taiwan’s relatively sheltered eastern shores, the area through which the U.S. and its allies might hope to resupply and reinforce the island should China invade.
Additionally, these exercises appear to be the end of any dividing line that had previously limited the deployment of Chinese forces near Taiwan. An informal median line has helped maintain peace in the Strait for decades, but Chinese officials have now made it clear that they no longer accept it. Indeed, Beijing has stated recently that Taiwan has no territorial seas; this seemingly new doctrine likely applies to the island’s airspace as well.
A final ominous conclusion from the exercises concerns the types of fires used. Not only did the PLA launch ballistic missiles over Taiwan in a dramatic display of firepower, but there was also a subtle message with the testing of rocket artillery fire into the Taiwan Strait. Rocket artillery is much cheaper and easier to launch than ballistic missiles. Rocket artillery that can reach across the strait would threaten radars, runways, munitions stores, headquarters and other crucial defenses, and could be used to coerce or in preparation for invasion.
This piece was originally published in Defense One on August 16, 2022. Read more HERE.