By Lyle Goldstein
With warnings of world war forming a dark cloud over the recent Aspen gathering of the American national security elite, it is not surprising that major foreign policy experts and even long-time Taiwan advocates are advising caution when it comes to Nancy Pelosi’s proposed trip to Taiwan. It does not take a Kissingerian realist to grasp that, with the Ukraine War showing signs of escalation, this is no time for the U.S. to risk a major showdown in the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing has made it clear that the visit will have negative consequences and Xi Jinping even warned Joe Biden explicitly on a 28 July phone call not to “play with fire.” A Pelosi visit to the island would be the highest level U.S. visit since 1997. Stable and constructive U.S.-China relations are integral to the future of the planet, whether considering climate change, pandemic response, global economic development prospects, nuclear weapons proliferation, or avoiding catastrophic great power military conflict. Therefore, political stunts on the sensitive Taiwan question, or what could be termed ‘poking the dragon in the eye,’ should be avoided by responsible Western leaders.
In fact, it is quite unlikely that China would launch an attack against Taiwan in the very near future. The country has been facing serious near-term governance and economic challenges related to the pandemic. At the same time, the war in Ukraine has been a sobering lesson for China’s leaders regarding the inevitable costs of wars and may suggest ways in which the PLA needs to adapt to modern warfare. The upcoming 20th Party Congress will be absorbing much of the energy of China’s leaders in the coming months. Finally, some key recent breakthroughs for China’s military in long-range strike operations, amphibious warfare, and also anti-submarine warfare, may imply that a few more years are needed for China to prepare in earnest for a Taiwan contingency.
Nevertheless, the trend lines are ominous. Most of China’s attack forces do appear to be already in place, ranging from thousands of cruise missiles and drones to hundreds of new helicopters and large transport aircraft for delivering airborne assaults directly into the island’s vulnerable interior — thus securing the beachheads from behind. Moreover, China’s leaders are well aware that many special weapons shipments to Taiwan are delayed by the massive demands for high-tech arms and munitions emanating from Kyiv.
This piece was originally published in UnHerd on July 30, 2022. Read more HERE.