By Lyle Goldstein
Many American strategists have hypothesized regarding Beijing’s likely lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine. All seem to agree that Chinese strategists will be poring over the “lessons learned” from Russia’s invasion, possibly with an eye toward a future military campaign against Taiwan. But few have delved into the actual writings of Chinese strategists appraising the Russian military campaign in order to learn what the Middle Kingdom’s military thinkers are really saying on this key set of topics.
A recent article breaks new ground on this subject by summarizing a Chinese analysis of Russian urban combat in the siege of Mariupol during the spring of 2022. The detailed article, published in the Chinese defense magazine Ordnance Industry Science and Technology, is one of dozens of analyses that have appeared recently in this and other reputable Chinese defense sources. These Chinese analyses touch every aspect of the present war in Ukraine, but the conclusions on urban warfare could be particularly important.
Taiwan is a highly urbanized environment with three cities over 1 million and a higher population density than Japan or even South Korea. No wonder Beijing strategists have been prioritizing the study of urban warfare tactics for some time. Seizing cities is considered one of the most challenging aspects of land warfare, and Russian retreats from Ukraine’s giant cities of Kyiv and also Kharkiv might reinforce that conclusion.
However, this Chinese analysis runs counter to conventional thinking among Western military specialists in concluding that Russia’s tactics in the conquest of Mariupol are worth not only careful study, but also emulation. The article starts out by declaring that the Mariupol campaign “has enormous value for research on urban combat in the new century.”
This piece was originally published in Stars and Stripes on July 21, 2022. Read more HERE.