By Daniel DePetris
In the 14 weeks since Russian forces first sent ballistic missiles into Ukraine, the West has proved itself to be a strong, unified bloc. Before the Feb. 24 invasion, the European Union (EU) was often divided against itself on Russia policy, with countries like Poland and the Baltics frequently pitted against France, Germany and Italy, who preferred to preserve lines of communication with the Kremlin. By virtue of its brutality in Ukraine, however, Russia has managed to bring Europe together—so much so that even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the most sympathetic ear Moscow has in EU, went along with the bloc's earlier sanctions measures.
Now in its fourth month, the war has reached a state of attrition, with Russian troops making incremental but tangible gains in the east of the country and Ukrainian forces either holding defensive lines in other areas or launching small counterattacks to spread Russian military resources thin. Beyond the battlefield, the big question is whether the West will be able to maintain the same amount of collective unity it mustered during the war's first weeks.
On the surface, it would appear the answer is self-evident: yes. Earlier this week, the EU decided to phase out imports of Russian crude oil by the end of the year, mimicking Washington's own Russian oil import ban in March. Yet the oil sanctions were only finalized after a month of internal haggling, fed by opposition from land-locked countries like Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which are highly dependent on Russian crude to keep the lights on. In the end, the sixth EU sanctions package against Moscow was considerably different from what the European Commission proposed in early May—at the insistence of Hungary, Russian oil deliveries via pipeline are still permitted until some undetermined future date. Because EU rules require unanimity on sanctions issues, Orbán was able to use his leverage to draw out the negotiations and eventually preserve Hungary's energy supply.
If the discussions over Russia oil sanctions threatened to torpedo the EU's cohesiveness, a debate over cutting or eliminating Russian natural gas will be even more fraught. The EU relies on Russia for about 40 percent of its natural gas, and 10 countries, including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria, imported more than 75 percent of their gas from Moscow. With inflation in the Eurozone at a 23-year high, the last thing many European governments want to do is adopt a policy that forces their people to pay even more for fuel. Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer has already dismissed the idea of Russian natural gas being the target of the next round of EU sanctions.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on June 3, 2022. Read more HERE.