By Lyle Goldstein
The media has recently been full of stories of unlikely soldiers, including elderly Ukrainian citizens undergoing military training for the possibility of undertaking an insurgency against Russian occupation. No doubt, the idea was intended by Kyiv and its friends to deter a Russian invasion. However, few seem to have genuinely grappled with the details of what an insurgency in Ukraine would actually entail.
Unquestionably, the Ukraine armed forces are badly overmatched by Russian military might. Moscow has a plethora of capabilities that Kyiv does not, particularly in the air and missile domains. The Ukrainian army might be able to inflict some casualties with its new Western-supplied anti-tank weaponry, but these Ukrainian units will have difficulty maintaining cohesion when faced with an onslaught of Russian rocket artillery attacks, supplemented by drone surveillance. Indeed, the Ukrainian Army broke in disorder when confronted by Russian rocket artillery in March 2015 at Debaltseve.
At first glance, an occupied Ukraine would seem ripe for an effective insurgency. It not only has plenty of citizens who despise the Russian leadership, but it is also quite a large country with reasonably varied terrain, and also has borders with six different countries, aside from Russia. In addition, many have noted that a considerable number of Ukrainians now have combat experience, having spent time in the combat zone in and around Donbas.
This piece was originally published in The Week on February 23, 2022. Read more HERE.