By Richard Hanania
The Thucydides Trap is among the most well-known concepts in international relations. Recently, discussions about the rise of China have invoked the phrase, arguing that the nation's growing economic and military strength potentially puts it on a collision course with the United States.
According to Graham Allison, “when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result.” If true, the possibility of great power war deserves a great deal more attention than it is currently getting.
China is indeed rising, and by some measures, is now the largest economy in the world. It appears to many to have become more assertive in various theaters from India to Hong Kong and the South China Sea. Does that mean that confrontation between the U.S. and China is inevitable, or even likely?
Not necessarily. To see why it is worth investigating the concept of the Thucydides Trap more closely. Begin with the first part of the definition. How exactly do we define great power? In international relations, it generally means a state that has enough military strength to spread its influence on a global scale.
This piece was originally published in Real Clear Defense on June 8, 2020. Read more HERE.