Ukraine's winter prospects, seven decades of U.S. military base openings, national disgrace in Iraq and Syria, and more.

WINTER WAR

Russia's in it for the long haul. Ukraine's building fortifications. What next?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "continues to deny the notion, expressed by Ukraine's top military officer, the various maps in circulation, and our own eyes, that the war is at a stalemate," griped Defense Priorities Fellow Daniel DePetris on X late last month, posting maps showing nearly undetectable shifts in Ukrainian battle lines between June and November.

Just a few days later, however, Zelensky finally took a different tack: He ordered "the construction of an extensive network of fortifications aimed at holding back Russian forces, signaling a switch to the defensive posture after a monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive yielded only small gains." In that context, here's the outlook for the winter ahead.

Russia’s long haul

"The Ukrainians call the Russian assaults 'meat waves.' … Kyiv estimates that Russia currently has over 400,000 troops in Ukraine." [WSJ / Marcus Walker and Ievgeniia Sivorka]
"Russia has amassed a large missile stockpile ahead of winter, and we see new attempts to strike Ukraine’s power grid," said NATO's Jens Stoltenberg. "We must not underestimate Russia. Russia's economy is on a war footing." [FT / Henry Foy et al.]
The European Union has reached the "end of the line on Russian energy sanctions," meaning "new restrictions are unlikely to hit the Kremlin’s war chest." [Politico / Gabriel Gavin and Victor Jack]
"Russian society has gotten used to living against the backdrop of a brutal armed conflict. A significant part of the population has reconciled itself" to long-term war. [Carnegie Endowment / Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov]
Russians say "the economy has stabilized, defying the Western sanctions that were once expected to have a devastating effect. Putin's regime, they say, looks more stable than at any other time in the past two years." [WaPo / Mikhail Zygar]

Ukraine’s winter impasse

In this year's counteroffensive, "Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone." [WaPo / David M. Herszenhorn et al.]
"As winter approaches, and the front lines freeze into place, Ukraine's most senior military officials acknowledge that the war has reached a stalemate." [WaPo / Peter Finn et al.]
Zelensky's decision to build fortifications "is the clearest official acknowledgment that Ukraine faces a hard winter defending the territory it holds." [WSJ / Matthew Luxmoore]

U.S. strategy implications

In January of this year, DEFP Director of Asia Engagement Lyle Goldstein argued for the advantages of a "Korea solution" in Ukraine. For Washington, the argument is worth revisiting now. [RS / Goldstein]
- A Korea solution means an armistice, where both sides agree to stop fighting without settling their conflicting claims.
- While this is less ambitious than a full settlement, it would still likely require protracted, multilateral negotiations, which could take years. That's why it makes sense to engage diplomatically with Russia now. Russian leaders have consistently claimed they are eager to talk, even as fighting continues.
- Battlefield setbacks this year have moved Ukrainian leaders toward realization that recovering all their territory is not possible, making a settlement more plausible. [RS / Goldstein]

Victory for Ukraine—"if it's even possible"—would "take years and a lot of blood," said an unnamed British security official. "Is Ukraine up for that?" Is the West? [WaPo / Peter Finn et al.]
These are questions for U.S. policymakers to seriously consider, especially as the Israel-Hamas war consumes limited defense resources and tensions remain high around Taiwan. [CNN / Christopher McCallion]

QUOTED

"The Gaza war comes at a terrible time for Ukraine. It sucked a lot of the political oxygen out of the room. There's a competition for resources no matter how you slice it."

– DEFP Director of Grand Strategy Rajan Menon, as quoted in, "As its counteroffensive fizzles, Ukraine battles itself, Russia and a shift in the world's attention" [NBC News / Yuliya Talmazan and Daryna Mayer]

MAPPED

U.S. military base openings (1948–2021)

Using date from Brown University's Costs of War project, USA Today has mapped the shocking proliferation of U.S. bases and other military installations around the globe over the past seven decades. "There are up to 800 U.S. military bases overseas," the paper reports, citing information the DoD and American University scholar David Vine.

At its peak density in 2021, the map above shows about 350 U.S. outposts, less than half the total American military footprint worldwide. Read more from USA Today.

Sober analysis

Our national disgrace in Iraq and Syria

[TAC / Dan Caldwell]

[Thousands of U.S. troops remain] in Iraq and Syria as part of a self-defeating combat operation that has largely flown under the radar of the American people for the last several years. The Biden administration prefers this lack of scrutiny. They declared combat operations over in Iraq at the end of 2021—a declaration not reciprocated by Iran's proxies—and have largely left Syria policy on autopilot since taking office.
Keeping U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria without a clear military mission does not make America safer, but instead risks a catastrophic loss of American life that could escalate into a major war. That many of our policy makers appear intent on sustaining this policy is a national disgrace.

Read the full analysis here.

Ukraine's winter prospects