Why containment is the wrong approach to U.S.-China policy, blowback in Somalia, the U.S.-Iran prisoner deal, and more.

Back in the USSR?

Strategic patience—not containment—is the right Cold War lesson to apply to Beijing

Many commentators have proposed we "dust off the containment playbook" for U.S. policy toward China, observes Cato Institute scholar John Mueller in a new article at Foreign Affairs.

But this idea is "certainly overconfident and probably misguided," Mueller argues. The strategy's reputation is disproportionately positive given its actual Cold War track record, he says, and it's "unlikely to work well against China today." A Cold War-informed approach of strategic patience and pragmatic diplomacy would better advance U.S. interests and enhance American security.

A mismatched strategy

There are important differences between the Chinese and Soviet postures toward the world which make containment—even if it were as effective as is widely believed—wrong for U.S.-China policy.
- Though "increasingly assertive," China isn't spreading an ideology like the USSR did.
- Moreover, its territorial ambitions seem to consist only of "reincorporating Taiwan at some point and settling disputes over parts of its border and over the seas around it."
- Indeed, most "of China's expansionist moves have nothing to do with force."
"There is no military answer to a grand strategy built on a nonviolent expansion of commerce and navigation," as Mueller quotes former U.S. diplomat Chas Freeman saying. [Foreign Affairs]

Wait it out

But like Moscow during the Cold War, Beijing is beset by a "growing set of domestic difficulties." It's on track to defeat itself, and Washington should practice a strategic patience while the communist state is slowly hoist with its own petard.
- "[M]ore than anything else, it was the Soviet Union's own errors and weaknesses that caused its downfall."
- Now as then, the key "is not so much to search for ways to balance against the rising hegemon. It is to let this troubled and perhaps declining country make its own mistakes."
- The right Cold War lesson the apply here is "about the wisdom of standing back, keeping your cool, and letting the contradictions in your opponent's system become apparent." [Foreign Affairs / Mueller]

Keep talking

That doesn't preclude actively pursuing pragmatic diplomacy, which serves U.S. interests by keeping open lines of communication even when it produces no dramatic wins at the negotiating table.
- "You don't just talk to your friends," Secretary of State James Baker once said. "You talk to your enemies as well," and this doesn't somehow "reward" them, especially "if you are tough and you know what you are doing." [Newsweek / Daniel R. DePetris]
- Or, as the famed American diplomat (and containment advocate) George Kennan more memorably mused in 1963, "We should be prepared to talk to the devil himself, if he controls enough of the world to make it worth our while." [Foreign Affairs / Andrei Kolesnikov]

Quoted

"Taipei is under 'severe pressure from these continual exercises' and has had to adjust its former practice of continually intercepting Chinese aircraft, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities and a visiting professor at Brown University. 'This could be part of China's strategy to stretch and intimidate Taiwan's forces,' he told Stars and Stripes by email."

— DEFP's Lyle Goldstein, as quoted in "'Military harassment': China sends record number of aircraft near Taiwan" [Stars and Stripes / Alex Wilson]

Go deeper with expert insight from Goldstein:

Landmines in Ukraine: Lessons for China and Taiwan [The Diplomat]
C-SPAN discussion of China's military capabilities [C-SPAN]
The trouble with Taiwan [Bulletin of Atomic Scientists]
Wargaming a Taiwan invasion scenario [The China Project]

DATA

Reported civilian deaths from U.S. strikes in Somalia, 2007–2023

The five confirmed and 80 fairly suspected civilian casualties from U.S. drone strikes, as well as the presence of U.S. forces in Africa more generally, foster popular frustration and anger at the U.S. that inadvertently helps terrorist recruitment.

In Somalia, U.S. intervention has unintentionally helped Al-Shabaab. Drawing on a collective Somali identity, the group has made the departure of foreign forces a central component of its messaging and overall agenda.

In this way, U.S. military engagement in Africa might fuel the next generation of 9/11 terrorists. Coupled with association with repressive African regimes, the U.S. military presence gives "credence to the anti-imperial narratives of African jihadi groups associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State," according to experts at the 2022 terrorism conference at West Point.

Read more about U.S. counterterrorism in Africa here.

Sober Analysis

The truth about the U.S.-Iran prisoner deal

[The Spectator / Daniel R. DePetris]

Some say the U.S. shouldn't have made a deal with the Iranians at all. Providing concessions, the logic goes, will just encourage Iran and other adversarial states to arrest more Americans.
Point taken. But we ought to face up to what this means in practice. Remove concessions from the equation and the Americans who are locked up unjustly will continue to languish behind bars for years, if not decades, to come. This is unfortunate on a moral level; ideally, no foreign government would treat an American citizen as a political pawn. Ideally, U.S. adversaries would release Americans without asking for a thing.
But we don't live in an ideal world. Concessions, whether in the form of a mutual prisoner exchange, limited sanctions relief or something entirely different, are often required. If somebody has a better system, I'm curious to hear what it is.

Read the full analysis here.

Against containment