FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
June 19, 2025
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org
WASHINGTON, DC—Today, the White House announced that President Trump will make an Iran decision within two weeks. Defense Priorities Director of Military Analysis Jennifer Kavanagh issued the following statement in response:
“President Trump’s decision to delay U.S. military strikes on Iran to continue his diplomatic efforts is welcome news. Diplomacy offers the only chance of a permanent resolution to the challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear program. There is no set of military actions that is capable of permanently eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities and aspirations.
“Even using the B-2 stealth bomber and the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) munition provides no guarantee the United States can completely destroy Iran’s enrichment facilities, especially those buried deep underground at Fordo. The MOP has never been used in an active combat situation, only tested in controlled environments, and there are questions about whether it can burrow sufficiently far underground to penetrate the concrete infrastructure protecting Fordo, or other sites such as Isfahan, where Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium are thought to be held. Ground operations or raids would likely have to follow, to ensure that Iran’s nuclear facilities and stockpiles are rendered inaccessible or unusable. This will be complicated if Iran has already distributed key components, such as centrifuges, around the country. And after all that, Iran would still have hundreds of scientists and engineers with the knowledge to reconstitute the program, if slowly over time.
“Avoiding U.S. military action also protects U.S. interests. Any U.S. strike on Iran would be met with retaliation, likely directed at U.S. bases and vulnerable military servicemembers in the region—redeploying those forces should continue. It could also trigger cyberattacks on the U.S. homeland or efforts by Iran to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with implications for U.S. consumers. The notion that the United States can conduct a few airstrikes and declare victory is an illusion. Any direct U.S. military strike on Iran is likely to mission creep into regime change or collapse or spiral into a long, protracted war.
“President Trump’s wise delay also reflects the intelligence community’s longstanding assessments that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon right now and is years from having one. There is no imminent risk of an Iranian nuclear weapon, let alone the capacity to deliver a nuclear warhead to a regional target or, even more implausibly, the U.S. homeland.
“Israel’s strikes on Iran may make U.S. diplomatic efforts more difficult, but there is still a chance at a deal—and plenty of time to pursue one through negotiations.”
See here for more analysis on the Israel-Iran war.
Author
More on Middle East
Events on Israel-Iran
