In a region notorious for its unpredictable ebbs and flows, the possible renewal of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations marks the latest in the saga between the two rivals. Just over two weeks ago, these countries exchanged unprecedented blows amid a broader Israel-Iran war that killed and injured thousands. Such rapid shifts raise an important, yet basic, question: Do officials in Tehran and Washington desire a deal, and can they reach one?
One can be excused for expressing either optimism or cynicism, given the wide range of possible outcomes. As expected, the so-called “Twelve-Day War” bolstered hawks in Israel, Iran, and the United States. Even amid renewed U.S. calls for talks, Iran remains skeptical. Israel prefers conflict and regime change. While not a foregone conclusion, the end of that war may be nothing more than a pause.
The supposed deterrent structure that dictated much of the region prior to October 7, 2023, is gone, and so are the rules that constituted it, thereby increasing the risk of miscalculation.
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