China’s buildup would not meaningfully alter the nuclear balance

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
November 3, 2021
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org

WASHINGTON, DC—Today, the Pentagon released a report assessing that China is increasing its nuclear arsenal faster than was previously thought. Defense Priorities Director of Asia Engagement Lyle Goldstein issued the following statement in response:

“DoD’s announcement corroborates reports from the summer that suggest a moderate buildup of Chinese strategic nuclear forces is now underway. This is not a crash buildup, but rather a deliberate attempt to ensure Washington knows China has sufficiently robust nuclear forces to ensure a balance of power with the U.S. and maintain deterrence. Such a buildup will not change the nuclear balance since China and the U.S. will remain in a situation of mutually assured destruction, or MAD. China’s buildup will simply guarantee the ‘rubble will bounce’—adding another layer of certainty to MAD, because the U.S., while possessing numerical superiority, still has no hope of intercepting most Chinese missiles in war.

“Instead of mutually antagonistic policies, which one might characterize as a ‘new cold war,’ the proper response should be to avoid an over-reaction and instead seek to deescalate, reestablish dialogue, adopt a more defensive posture, and implement crisis management steps, especially with respect to the volatile Taiwan situation.”

Author

Lyle
Goldstein

Director, Asia Program

Defense Priorities