Will Iran become a two-front war?

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new economic pressure campaign on Iran last month, the goal was simple: Keep the squeeze on Tehran’s economy without resorting to the return of a full-scale war that would send the Middle East back into turmoil. The strategy was designed to play to Washington’s strengths as the world’s paramount financial power while chipping away at Iran’s ability to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. This, combined with the U.S. Navy’s program to guide tankers along the Omani coast, would dissolve Tehran’s leverage over time.

That was the theory. But putting it into practice depended on Iran withholding its fire as long as the U.S. military stopped dropping bombs. That didn’t come to pass. The notion that Iran would sit back as its economy moved ever closer to implosion was not grounded in reality.

Instead of acting the way we would like them to act, the Iranians have escalated. Last week, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard took aim at U.S. Navy ships patrolling the Persian Gulf and enforcing the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, compelling the U.S. military to retaliate by striking Iranian oil tankers. Iran’s proxies are also stepping up in a big way, targeting some of the region’s most critical energy infrastructure and rattling Saudi Arabia, which risks being dragged into the U.S.-Iran confrontation against its will.

The Gulf’s largest energy provider is now staring at the possibility of a two-front war. Although Iranian fire into Saudi territory stopped months ago, the Houthis in Yemen next door are increasingly striking Saudi-affiliated tankers in the Red Sea.