The war in Iran, the “little excursion” that was supposed to be over in four to six weeks, passed its six-month mark on Friday. And notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s premature declarations of victory, threats to pummel the Iranians into submission and his repeated proclamations that the United States is winning the conflict, the actual result thus far is a blurry picture. The endgame is likely to be far less impressive than the pro-democratic Iranian revolution he called for on the opening day of the war.
The conflict has taken on a predictable pattern: Tit-for-tat violence is replaced by diplomacy, which then collapses into renewed shooting and a subsequent series of unilateral ceasefires that are eventually challenged by more barrages. In its quest to get the Strait of Hormuz open, the Trump administration has spent months throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick.
When consecutive weeks of U.S. airstrikes against Iranian missile batteries, small boats and drone manufacturing facilities failed to compel Tehran to reopen the waterway, the White House switched to a naval embargo of Iranian ports in the hope the economic pain would reach an intolerable level.
When that strategy fell short of the mark, the administration coupled the embargo with what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labeled “Operation Economic Outcast,” yet another economic pressure campaign designed to penalize any individual, company or country that trades with Iran. The aim: Strangle the Iranian economy and push the regime to get back to the negotiating table on American terms.
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